Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our forecast was back in March 2022.
We expect a 1.7% decline in exports, which would be a third straight fall, and a 3.1% increase in imports, rebounding from a 1.8% decline in June that was the first decline since January.
We expect goods data to be consistent with advance goods data already released, which saw exports down by 2.9% led by industrial supplies and imports up by 3.7% led by capital goods. More detail on the subcomponents will be available in this report.
We expect a marginal increase in the services surplus to $29.0bn from $28.85bn, with exports rising by 0.6% and imports rising by 0.7%, both in line with recent trend. Service imports would then rise by slightly more than service imports in USD terms.