U.S. Preliminary July Michigan CSI - Bounce may be dated
July’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 54.4 has shown a stronger than expected bounce from June’s final of 49.5 reaching the highest level since February. The gain however may already be dated given the revival of hostilities in the Middle East.
Gasoline prices saw a rise in the latest week (to July 13) after falling in eight straight weeks from their high in the week to May 11. There may be more gasoline price gains to come.
Some may be surprised to see that current conditions saw a stronger rise than expectations in June, but this follows June data when expectations saw the stronger gain. Compared with May, the recoveries in each index are similar.
The 1-year inflation view of 4.2% is down from 3.6% in June and 4.8% in May. The 5-10 year view of 3.3% is unchanged from June but well below May’s 3.9%. The highs generated by the energy shock were lower than the post-tariff highs in 2025.
