Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - An upward correction in a slowing trend
We expect an August new home sales pace of 635k, which would be a 4.6% increase if July’s 10.5% decline to 607k is revised. A modest rise should be seen as corrective with trend weakening, in part because of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
A monthly increase would be consistent with a rise in August’s NAHB homebuilders index, but housing sector indicators mostly look subdued, with August existing home sales seeing a third straight decline. For new home sales we expect gains in the Midwest and South after July declines to outweigh slippage in the Northeast and West after July gains. The South is by far the largest region.
We expect the median price to rise by 1.0% on the month after two straight declines while the average price falls by 1.0% after a bounce in July. However gains in August 2025 should see yr/yr data negative in both series, the median at -4.8% versus -0.9% in July, and the average at -4.1% versus a 5.4% yr/yr increase in July.
