Preview: Due July 9 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales imply a rise
We expect June existing home sales to increase by 1.9% to 4.25m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since December 2025. This would be consistent with signals from May pending home sales, but other housing signals are less positive.
May pending home sales saw a fourth straight increase after hitting a record low in January, reaching their highest level since November, consistent with existing home sales reaching their highest level since December. Other survey data is however less impressive, with the NAHB homebuilders’ index seeing renewed weakness in June after a modest rise in May. Pending home sales are designed to predict existing home sales. New home sales, which saw a second straight decline in May, are better corrected with the NAHB survey.
Our forecast would take yr/yr existing home sales growth to 6.8%. the highest since December 2024 and up from 3.2% in May. The yr/yr median price is however likely to remain subdued at 1.2%, versus 1.3% in May, even with a 2.0% monthly increase that will be largely seasonal. Unless Fed easing hopes revive, there is probably limited upside scope in existing home sales from our projected June level.
