U.S. July New Home Sales, August Consumer Confidence - Both weakest since January, mixed detail
The latest US data is on balance weak, with August consumer confidence at 89.4 from 90.2 the weakest since January though details are mixed. New home sales saw a sharp fall of 10.5% in July, with the level of 607k also the weakest since January. However the dip is partly offset by a sharp upward revision to June, to 678k from 628k.
New home sales have lost some momentum in 2026 to date, with the norm now appearing to have slipped from what had been a fairly steady 650-700k range. January was well below the range in part on bad weather.
June is now on the firm side of the recent range and the average of June and July at 642.5k may be close to where underlying trend now is. We doubt momentum will fall much further unless Fed tightening fears pick up again. August’s NAHB homebuilder’s survey saw some improvement.
Prices are mixed with the median down 2.3% on the month and down by 0.9% yr/yr, a second straight monthly decline and a third straight yr/yr decline. The average price however rose by 4.1% on the month and 5.4% yr/yr, both rebounding from negatives in June.
The consumer confidence detail shows the present situation up by 6.8 points to 121.2 after three straight declines but expectations at 68.2 are down by 5.8 points to the weakest level since January.
The present situation index saw support from a more positive perception of the labor market which could hint at improvement in August’s non-farm payroll after to weak months.
The expectations index is probably reflecting worries over the Middle East though inflation expectations, while up on the month, remain below recent highs.
