Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly
We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.
There may be some upside risk in the survey week given milder than usual weather and a fall in initial claims in that week. We expect the ADP data to underperform a 60k increase in private sector non-farm payrolls, but we now expect the latter to be lifted by 32k returning strikers, which we do not expect to be a factor in ADP data. We expect overall payrolls excluding government to increase by 50k.
ADP data did not prove a reliable guide to payrolls in the last two months, though a sharp ADP underperformance in January was fully offset by an ADP outperformance in February.
We expect March’s ADP detail to show goods employment unchanged but a 40k increase in services. February’s 47k rise in ADP services employment was more than fully due to a 58k increase in education and health. This sector may slow in March, but this could be in part offset by business and professional declining by less than the 30k seen in February.
