Published: 2025-09-05T06:35:52.000Z
GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after retail sales

Senior FX Strategist
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UK retail sales much as expected after significant revisions, GBP a little firmer
GBP is a little firmer after the UK retail sales data, with a slightly larger m/m rise than expected at 0.6%. However, there have been significant revisions to previous data due to some errors in seasonal adjustment, so that the previously reported sharp gain in April followed by an even sharper decline in May have been smoothed out. Consequently, the trend still looks reasonably steady, although there are some signs of weakening in the last few months. GBP gains seem unlikely to extend with the revisions meaning the y/y data came out weaker than expected at 1.1% against the 1.3% consensus. The focus will now likely be more on the global risk tone around the US employment data.