Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Advance goods data points to a lower deficit
We expect an April trade deficit of $55.5bn, down from $60.3bn in March though March’s deficit is likely to be revised lower, probably by around $2.0bn. The deficit appears to be stabilizing slightly below $60bn per month, which compares to around $75bn before Trump took office and implemented dramatic policy swings.
April’s advance goods data, measured on a census basis, showed exports up by 4.0% and imports up by 1.9%. With price data showing export prices up by 3.3% and imports up by 1.9% this implies a modest rise in real exports and little change in real imports.
If these changes are matched in April’s goods data as measured by a balance of payments basis, this would imply an April goods deficit of $85.9bn. However The advance goods data showed a downward revision to the March goods deficit to $85.3bn in March from $87.4bn in March, so assuming a similar revision to the balance of payments based data, we forecast an April goods deficit of $84.0bn.
We expect a services surplus of $28.5bn, little changed from $28.4bn in March, though revisions are possible here too. We expect gains of 0.4% in both service exports and service imports, in line with rennet trend despite plenty of monthly volatility around this trend. That would leave overall exports up by 2.8% and overall imports up by 1.6% in April.