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Published: 2026-06-01T08:22:48.000Z

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Data leaves consolidation in place

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Data leaves current consolidation in place

Eurozone final May manufacturing PMI 51.6 from 52.2, but slightly above expectations at 51.4. No great surprises then with the broad story of orders dropping back after an initial bit of stockpiling and prices charges at 3 ½ year highs.  

EZ M3 down to 2.7% vs mkt 3.2% though, and the latest ECB survey has 1yr inflation expectations steady at 4.0%, 3yr easing to 2.9% from 3.0% and 5yr unchanged at 2.4%. Consumers are pessimistic on the 1yr growth (-2.2%) and income expectations. At least no acceleration in expectations from an ECB point of view then. 

In the UK meanwhile, data highlights some spillover from Iran onto confidence and via mortgage rates as nationwide house prices cooled, with a 0.6%m/m drop taking the yr/yr rate back to 1.7% from 3%.

Overall, nothing to detract GBP keeping to swing trade action on the cross for now and EUR/USD in consolidation mode looking for Iran news to deliver the next more significant direction on FX and rates spreads near-term. 

 

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Topics
Flows
USD/JPY-Commentary
EUR/USD-Commentary

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