U.S. April Final Michigan CSI - Revised higher but still weak
The final April Michigan CSI of 49.8 is up from the preliminary 47.6 but still down from 53.3 in March and a record monthly low.
Both current conditions (by 2.4 points to 52.5) and expectations (by 2.0 points to 48.1) were revised higher. Signs of resilience in the labor market and higher tax refunds may be weighing against the worries over higher gasoline prices.
The 1-year inflation expectation was revised down to 4.7% from 4.8% but is still up from 3.8% in March, though some way off the post-tariff highs above 6.0%.
The 5-10 year view, which is of more concern to the Fed, was revised up to 3.5% from 3.4%, and is up further from 3.4% in March, though still below post-tariff highs above 4.0%. This series had been very stable near 3.0% before the tariffs. Tariff fears appear to be fading but higher energy prices are a significant concern.
