Preview: Due December 5 - U.S. October Trade Balance - Deficit to slip but may rebound in coming months
We expect an October trade deficit of $74.7bn, down from $84.4bn in September and below the Q3 average of $78.0bn. though trend in the deficit is probably still widening and we may see strong imports data later in Q4 in an attempt to beat threatened tariffs.
We expect goods data to be consistent with advance data which showed exports down by 3.2% and imports down by 5.4%. Both series were probably depressed by a brief strike at East coast ports at the start of the month, with imports further depressed by a correction from a strong September.
We expect a marginal dip in the services surplus to $24.5bn from $24.6bn with exports up by 0.4% after a flat September and imports up by 0.8% after a 0.9% decline in September. Overall, we expect exports to fall by 2.0% and imports to fall by 4.2%.
