Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Signs of improvement
We expect September existing home sales to increase by 2.5% to 4.10m, reaching the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
Pending home sales, designed to predict existing home sales, picked up in August, and August new home sales saw a sharp rise. MBA weekly house purchase indices improved in September and while September's NAHB homebuilders’ index saw little change its October data was stronger.
We expect sales to increase in all four regions. We expect a 1.0% decline in the median price but this fall should be seen as seasonal. Yr/yr median prices would then pick up to 2.9% from 2.0% in August and 1.0% in July. July’s yr/yr pace was the lowest since June 2023. A downtrend may be bottoming.
