Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. October Housing Starts and Permits - Little change seen with restraint from weather
We do not expect much change in October housing starts or permits, looking for the former to fall by 0.3% to 1350k while the latter rise by 0.4% to 1430k. Hurricane Milton provides some downside risk in the South while underlying signals on the housing sector are mixed.
Construction employment details in October’s non-farm payroll were subdued but far from weak. New home sales are looking healthy which is probably more important for housing starts than weakness in existing home sales. Housing surveys picked up in September as the Fed started easing but some loss of momentum was seen in October as Fed easing expectations were scaled back.
We expect single starts to slip by 1.7% after two straight gains and single permits to fall by 0.3% in a continued correction from a 2.8% rise in August. We expect multiple starts to rise by 4.0% after a 9.4% September decline and multiple permits to rise by 1.7% after an 8.2% September decline.
While we expect subdued data for October the data is likely to be restrained by weather, hinting at potential for gains in November. Further ahead, the pace of Fed easing will be key.
