Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.
We expect some improvement in September’s nonfarm payroll too, with a rise of 180k overall and 150k in the private sector which is more comparable to the ADP data.
The nonfarm payroll would then be the strongest in four months. This would be a marginal underperformance by the ADP report, similar to that seen in August, after slightly stronger ADP outperformances in June and July.
Leisure and hospitality which was subdued at 11k in August’s ADP report as well as education and health which significantly underperformed nonfarm payrolls at 29k have scope to accelerate, as does professional and business after two straight negatives. Services are therefore likely to lead the ADP rebound.
