Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - A wider deficit on goods trade
We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $255.0bn, up from $226.8bn in Q1 which is likely to be revised narrower. As a proportion of GDP the deficit is set to increase to 3.14% from 2.85% in Q1.
Q2 goods and services trade data has already been released with monthly data. The goods deficit of $291.3bn was up from $250.9bn in Q1 which has not seen a significant subsequent revision. The Q2 services surplus of $91.2bn is down from a revised $92.1bn in Q1 but that is a significant upward revision from a $85.1bn services surplus reported with the Q1 current data, signaling a likely revision lower in the Q1 current account deficit.
Still to be released are data on primary (investment) income and secondary (unilateral transfers) income. Fed flow of funds data however suggests the both will see moderate improvement in Q2. We expect a primary income deficit of $11.0bn versus $13.3bn in Q1 and a secondary income deficit of $43.9bn versus $47.8bn in Q1. These series may also see revisions from Q4 data.
