Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Remaining soft
We expect July new home sales to be little changed at 620k, which would be down 1.3% from June if June is unrevised. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Housing sector indicators have generally had little clear trend. July existing home sales fell by 1.7%, though trend is fairly flat with yr/yr data up by a marginal 0.7%. Survey evidence for July from both the NAHB and MBA does however suggest some softening, reflecting increased fears that the next Fed move will be a tightening. Our forecast would leave new home sales at -4.3% in July, a fourth straight yr/yr decline.
We expect sales to slip in three of the four regions, the exception being a correction higher in the West which was the only region to slip in June. We expect prices to correct higher on the month after slippage in June, the median by 1.0% after a 3.3% June decline, and the average by 3.0% after a sharp 9.5% drop in June. This would see yr/yr data move back above zero, the median at 1.3% from -2.7% and the average at 1.4% from -6.5%.
