U.S. Preliminary August Michigan CSI - July bounce fades
August’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 51.0 is weaker than expected and down from 55.4 in July. The index however remains above June’s 49.5 as well as May’s low of 44.8.
Both current conditions (51.8 from 54.8) and expectations (50.6 from 55.2) participated in the decline.
The current conditions dip may reflect increasing worries over the labor market, as shown by a weak July non-farm payroll.
Expectations may reflect the fading of peace hopes in the Middle East, though inflation ex[actions have not seen much change, the 5-10 year view stable at 3.3% and the 1-year view only marginally higher at 4.3% from 4.2%.
The data seems to reflect a fading of increased optimism seen in July, and this may be more due to signs of a slowing labor market than heightened worries over inflation.
