Preview: Due July 10 - Canada June Employment - World Cup to help sustain May bounce
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January.
May’s strong increase was probably largely corrective from preceding weakness, most notably in February, with the 6-month average remaining marginally negative. Without the World Cup, which is likely to boost employment in the Toronto and Vancouver areas, we would have expected a subdued June report.
May’s breakdown contained some hints of support from the World Cup, with employment gains of 41.8k in Ontario, which includes Toronto, and 25.2k in British Columbia, which includes Vancouver. By industry the detail was less convincing. Gains of 19.3k in information, culture and recreation, and 17.0k in accommodation and food services, may have been supported by the World Cup. However, gains of 26.8k in construction and 14.7k in manufacturing look difficult to sustain, as does a rise of 20.4k in the public sector. Less suggestive of a World Cup factor in May was surge of 154k in full time jobs, while part time work, which the World Cup would be likely to boost, fell by 66.2k. This corrected from three straight months in which part time jobs rose while full time jobs slipped. We expect June to see full time jobs seeing renewed slippage, by 25k, while part time work increases by 50k. We also expect June’s gain to be led by a 30k rise in the private sector, with the public sector correcting lower by 5k.
We expect a 15k June rise in the labor force, on the firm side of trend, but still underperforming employment, allowing unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%. May’s rate was 6.56% before rounding so it will not take much to see the rounded rate slipping. We expect yr/yr growth in the hourly wage for permanent employees to bounce to 3.6% from May’s sharply slower 3.2%, while remaining well below April’s 4.8%. June 2025 data was soft, suggesting scope for a bounce in yr/yr growth this month, though the sharp slowing in May is not easily explained by data from May 2025.
