Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Housing sector indicators have generally had little clear trend, though fading expectations for rate cuts have had some restraint on demand. May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index did however see some recovery from a dip in April which hints at a correction higher in new home sales, though the NAHB index slipped back in June. It is unclear yet whether the Middle East peace deal will support demand.
We expect sales to increase in the Midwest and South after April dips but slippage in the Northeast and West. The South is by far the largest region. We expect the median price to slip by 1.0% on the month after a strong April rise while the average price remains unchanged. This would leave a yr/yr decline of 1.0% for the median versus a 2.2% increase in April, while the average would be down by -1.2% yr/yr, for the average, similar to April’s -1.1% yr/yr decline.
