Preview: Due October 27 - U.S. September New Home Sales - August rise unlikely to be sustained
After August saw new home sales reach an 8-month high of 684k, we expect September to slip to 630k, which would be the lowest since a matching outcome in February. That would be down 7.9% from August though risk is that August’s 6.4% increase will be revised lower.
Existing home sales increased in September but after three straight declines trend is negative. The NAHB homebuilders index slipped in September after an August rise and suggests rising mortgage rates are having a negative impact on Housing demand.
We expect increases in sales in the Northeast and West to follow August declines, but there are likely to be outweighed by slippage in the Midwest and South (the largest region) after increases in August.
We expect the median price to fall by 1.0% on the month after a 0.4% August increase but the average price to rise by 4.0% after a sharp 9.1% decline in August. This would leave the median price down by 6.8% yr/yr, versus -5.8% in August, and the average down by 1.8% yr/yr, versus -8.8% in August.