U.S. September Consumer Confidence down sharply, August Job Openings slip
September consumer confidence at 81.9 from 88.6 is the weakest since April 2014 with consumers worrying about prices, jobs and interest rates. August job openings fell by 256k to 7.079m, the weakest level since December 2025, though this signal is less negative than from the confidence data.
The latest dip in confidence takes the level below the 85.7 seen in April 2025 when tariffs were introduced. Both the present situation, down 7.9 points and expectations, down by 5.9 points, participated in the decline. Expectations remain above the April 2025 level.
The gap between those seeing jobs as plentiful and those seeing them as hard to get fell to 1.7% from 4.2% and is the lowest since February 2021, and is consistent with a rise in unemployment in September, contrasting our forecast for an unchanged rate of 4.1%.
The average and median inflation expectations both rose by 0.3% to 6.1% and 5.1% respectively. 68.4% expect higher interest rates in the next 12 months, up from 63.2% in August.
The latest job openings number puts the 3-month average at -153k, its weakest since December 2025 but the 6-month average at 26k is still positive, back near neutral after edging above 100k in May and June. This implies subdued employment growth, but is a less negative signal than from the consumer confidence data. The latter survey covers September. The job openings data is for August.
Elsewhere in the JOLTS report hires increased by 46k and separations fell by 58k, with quits down by 23k. The difference between hires and separations of 122k follows three straight near flat months, consistent with recent payroll reports.