Preview: Due January 26 - U.S. November Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend positive
We expect November durable goods orders to increase by 4.5%, led by a strong rise in aircraft as implied by Boeing data, though we expect ex transport orders to show a positive trend persisting with a rise of 0.6%.
Aircraft is a volatile series being behind strong gains in March and May, and another one looks likely in November. We expect defense orders to be flat after an October dip corrected a strong September. Ex defense we expect a rise of 4.7%.
Trend ex transport, previously near flat, turned positive in May. October’s 0.1% increase was below recent trend. We expect a return to trend in November, with manufacturing production rising in both November and December. The ISM new orders index has softened, but is not a reliable guide to monthly ex transport orders.
We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to outperform the ex-transport series for a fourth straight month, though this time only marginally with an increase of 0.7%. Business equipment has been leading recent gains in industrial production.
