Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
Final Q2 GDP data is due on September 30 and we are not forecasting any revision from the preliminary 1.5% estimate. Of greater significance will be historical revisions for data going back through 2021. We will be watching particularly for any revisions to core PCE prices, personal income and spending.
Changes to the base from revisions to Q1 will probably impact any Q2 revisions more than marginal fine tuning from revisions to recent monthly data. We are not forecasting any revision to Q2.
In the historical revisions, Fed’s Waller has already suggested that changes to non-market prices could see yr/yr growth in core PCE prices revised lower. Core PCE prices are unusually currently running ahead of core CPI, with yr/yr growth in Q2 being 3.4% and 2.7% respectively.
Within the GDP detail consumer spending, which stood at 2.3% yr/yr in Q2, has been running well ahead of real disposable income, which in Q2 was marginally negative at -0.1% yr/yr. Real disposable income is more prone to revisions than consumer spending, so if the gap is narrowed, it is more likely to be from the income side.