Published: 2026-05-18T15:14:02.000Z
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q1 GDP - A marginal upward revision
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We expect a preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP at 2.1%, a marginal upward revision from the advance estimate of 2.0%.
We expect modest upward revisions to retail sales and private construction spending, both residential and non-residential.
These are likely to outweigh negative revisions to public construction, inventories and net exports (the latter due to imports seeing a stronger upward revision than exports in USD terms if not percentage terms).
We expect final sales (GDP less inventories) to be revised up to 1.7% from 1.6%, but final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP less inventories and net exports) to be revised up to 3.0% from 2.8%.
We do not expect any revisions to the price indices, of 3.6% for GDP, 4.5% for PCE and 4.3% for core PCE.
