USD flows: ISM slightly better than expected, USD stays firm

US manufacturing ISM has come in slightly stronger than expected, with orders and employment indices both higher on the month, and the headline PMI index above consensus, albeit slightly lower on the month. The USD has made general gains, with the JPY the main victim once again, with EUR/JPY testing key resistance at 164. The ISM may be too early to capture the full effect of tariffs, and the index is still towards the low end of the recent range, so it doesn’t justify a lot of optimism. Nevertheless, as long as we see data at or around consensus, the JPY looks likely to stay on the back foot.