U.S. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey - A correction lower, still positive
June’s Empire State manufacturing index at 5.7 implies moderate manufacturing growth after two straight strong months, with May having risen to 19.6, the highest since April 2022.
The slowing may simply be a sign that May was overstated rather than a signal for weaker data in other manufacturing surveys, though further acceleration in the ISM index may also be hard to achieve.
Current month data shows a significant slowing in new orders, to a still positive 3.5 from 22.7, though employment at 9.6 from 8.3 was increasingly positive, if not as high as April’s 9.6. Six month expectations for activity at 30.1 from 33.5 are slower, but still healthy.
Current month price data are little changed if still firm, paid at 61.0 from 62.6 and received at 31.4 from 31.8. Six month expectations for prices paid also showed a marginal decline, to 59.4 from 62.1, but six month expectations for prices received at 51.6 from 43.6 are the highest since April 2022, and warn of future output price inflation ahead.
