U.S. April JOLTS report - Openings rise impressive, other detail less so
April’s JOLTS report has shown a much stronger than expected 731k increase in job openings, more than fully reversing two straight declines to raise the 3-month average to 124k, its highest since November 2022. The 6-month average moved back above neutral after falling below in March, now standing at 75k. The job openings rate of 4.6% from 4.2% in the highest since November 2024.
Other details in the report are less positive, with turnover lower, with a 419k fall in hires and a 399k fall in separations. Both series are following slippage in February and increases in March. The difference between hires and separation levels of 138k is reasonably consistent with April’s 115k non-farm payroll increase. Quits fell by 183k, also after an April rise and a March decline. Lower quits hint at reduced confidence in the availability of jobs.
We expect a slightly slower 85k rise in May’s non-farm payroll though this is consistent with the labor market remaining stable. The openings data hints at upside risk, even if the strong rise needs to be seen alongside preceding declines and the other details of the JOLTS report are not so positive.