Preview: Due October 28 - U.S. September Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to widen further
We expect an advance September goods trade deficit of $137.0bn, up from $132.1bn in August and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit seen in March 2025 of $158.7bn. The September deficit, as was August’s, is likely to be higher than anything seen before Q1 2025.
The deficit has recently been deteriorating as the AI investment boom sucks in imports, and that is likely to continue. Net exports are likely to be a significant negative in what will be an otherwise strong Q3 GDP report due on October 29. In addition to the advance trade data, advance retail and wholesale inventory data released with the report could influence Q3 GDP estimates.
Monthly data showed a 2.2% increase in export prices which exceeded a 1.1% rise in import prices. However we expect import volumes to rise faster than export volumes, leaving nominal imports up by 3.0% compared with 2.5% for nominal exports. Data from the Southern California ports suggests a very strong month for imports, though exports also showed some improvement.
.