ADP slight downside given the benefit of the doubt
EUR/USD still a bit heavy, market's ECB follow up expectations ebb out
Minor <10 tick blip on the ADP print but EUR/USD remains around the day lows sub 1.14, not done any harm by the inflation data underscoring the lack of need for follow up ECB action.
ADP itself is only a modest downside miss at 98k, about 20k below market. There’s enough recent divergence from official private NFP (even if last month did actually match) not to give it too much weight. Indeed it’s one of those confirmation-bias scenarios where the market would have been much more likely to react to an upside ADP surprise than a downside one. Challenger layoffs earlier were much reduced on the month but broadly the same as at the same time last year.