Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise
We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some loss of momentum in the week to April 18, the week of the monthly survey.
The positive signals from the weekly ADP data are consistent with low initial claims and renewed slippage in continued claims, as well as increased labor market optimism in the Conference Board’s April consumer confidence report.
The weekly ADP data may be showing some catch up with March’s non-farm, payroll, which saw a 186k incase in private sector employment, substantially outperforming a 62k increase in march’s ADP report. March’s ADP gain was similar to its 66k February increase, which outperformed a 129k decline in private payrolls, with payroll volatility exaggerated by a stroke and bad weather in February that were corrected in March.
April’s non-farm payroll is likely to underperform, the ADP data, but we still expect a respectable 90k non-farm payroll increase, 95k in the private sector, given other signals for labor market resilience. We expect services to lead the acceleration in April’s ADP report. Trade in particular looks due for a bounce after falling by 58k in March.
