EUR/USD flows: And now the wait
Markets moved to recent oil floor and recent key pair/dollar resistance on the initial headlines
Now in waiting mode to see if this one actually delivers, Iran yet to declare final decision
It wouldn’t be a Friday if hopes didn’t run high that an Iran deal was close and could be signed soon, but this time at least the background diplomatic hard yards do seem to have been put in on the hard issues. From Trump’s comments it seems he is on board the latest version and it is now awaiting Iran who have yet to make a final decision.
Knee jerks, if it arrives, are of course further dollar haven unwind, at least initially, some re-pricing at some short ends and an escape value for recent equity pressure, though with SpaceX starting trading that also injects fresh volatility into the mix too. Oil is already hedged towards it at the bottom of the waiting range at post April lows, seeing if it has the green light to break that floor.
After yesterday’s initial reactions, overnight and into the European morning is proving more circumspect, naturally enough, having seen a lot of false hope (and fear) so many times in recent days.
With the market backing off the main areas, 1.1575/1.16 is the bounce resistance for EUR/USD for instance and clearance of that is needs to be seen to be shifting the bias towards further upside correction.