Published: 2025-03-05T14:01:12.000Z
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. January Trade Balance - Record deficit as imports surge ahead of tariffs
Senior Economist , North America
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We expect a record January trade deficit of $129.6bn, up sharply from December’s $98.4bn and well above the previous record of $101.9bn seen in March 2022.
We expect exports to rise by 1.5% after a 2.6% December decline, while imports surge by 9.7% after two straight gains of 3.5%. The threat of tariffs looks to be clearly behind the recent surge in imports.
Advance goods data showed exports up by 2.0% and imports up by 11.9% and goods data will look similar to that. We expect a modest increase in the services surplus, to $24.8bn from $24.5bn, with exports rising by 0.7% and imports rising by 0.6%.
