Preview: Due October 30 - Canada August GDP - A rise that may not be repeated in September
We expect a 0.2% increase in August Canadian GDP, in line with the estimate given with July’s data, though risk is for lower rather than higher. We expect an unchanged preliminary estimate for September, weakness in employment and rising risk from fresh US tariffs.
We expect goods GDP to rise by 0.1%, with a rise in construction set to outweigh a modest dip in manufacturing. Mining in quarrying is seen positive but oil and gas extraction negative.
We expect a 0.2% rise in services, with retail positive and wholesale negative. July was flat with both retail and wholesale negative while June was up by 0.5% with both retail and wholesale strong. A dip in arts, entertainment and recreation is likely given the end of the World Cup.
Yr/yr GDP would then rise to 1.7% from 1.4%. A flat September would leave Q3 up by around 2.0% annualized. Q4 may slow to around 1.0% as fresh US tariffs bite.