Preview: Due October 5 - U.S. September ISM Services - Maintaining a fairly steady picture
While the S and P services PMI has accelerated sharply though Q3 after being quite subdued in Q1 and Q2, we expect the ISM services index to maintain a fairly steady profile that has been seen in the year to date, correcting lower to 55.0 from August’s 55.4, which was up from 54.1 in July.
Signals from regional service sector surveys such as the Richmond and Philadelphia Feds, and the Empire State are fairly neutral. The ISM services survey also sees tougher seasonal adjustments on September.
We expect the breakdown to show modest slippage from strong August readings above 60 in new orders and business activity, but some increase from fairly subdued levels from employment and delivery times.
We expect prices paid to see a modest slowing to 71.5 from August’s 72.6 which was the highest since a matching August 2022. Seasonal adjustments will provide some provide some restraint here too. Prices paid do not contribute to the composite.