Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts due for a bounce, but trend subdued
We expect August housing starts to increase by 8.2% to 1340k after a 12.4% decline in July while permits fall by 1.6% to 1410k after a 4.3% increase in July.
Signals on housing in August’s non-farm payroll are positive but for the most part housing sector trends are subdued.
For single starts we expect a rise of 11.4% after a 9.9% July decline that was well outside a largely flat trend as implied by single permits. We expect single permits to fall by 0.4% after a 2.2% increase in July.
Multiple starts are often volatile but we do not expect sharp moves in August. July’s 16.8% fall in multiple starts returned the level to normal after a very strong June, while July’s 7.4% increase in multiple permits simply reversed two straight declines. In August we expect multiple starts to rise by 2.1% and multiple permits to fall by 3.5%.
