Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Strongest rise since April
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.2% increase in October, slightly above a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with September’s report and the strongest increase since April. This would suggest Bank of Canada easing is starting to have some impact.
We expect goods GDP to increase by 0.1% led by manufacturing with October shipments having come in stronger than expected in preliminary data. However, the preliminary GDP estimate saw declines in mining and construction, which should keep the goods GDP increase modest.
We expect services GDP to rise by 0.2%, matching September’s gain. Gains are likely in wholesale, transport/warehousing and real estate/rental/leasing, the latter two signaled with the preliminary estimate, though retail sales were flat in real terms (and the preliminary estimate for Novemeber was flat in nominal terms). Yr/yr GDP looks set to be unchanged at 1.6%.
