Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
We expect a 0.6% increase in goods after a 0.8% decline in March and a 0.2% increase in services after a 0.1% increase in March. March’s report stated April’s gain was likely to be led by mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. Only the latter will support services, and with April retail and wholesale sales subdued in real terms services are unlikely to pick up sharply.
Within goods, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction will be correcting from a March decline, while monthly data suggests a rise in manufacturing. Construction has scope to correct from two straight declines but March’s report suggested April would see continued weakness in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hinting. Yr/yr GDP on our forecast would pick up to 0.8% from 0.4%.
