U.S. Initial Claims moving higher, but possible holiday seasonal adjustment issues
Initial claims at 247k are the highest since a hurricane-inflated 260k in October 2024 though could have some seasonal adjustment issues due to the Memorial Day holiday. The data covers the week two weeks after the May non-farm payroll as surveyed. Still, there does seem to be some loss of labor market momentum.
This is the third time initial claims have moved above 240k in 2025. The first on February 22 came in the week of the President’s Day holiday and the second on April 26 came in Easter week.
Some caution is justified on this week’s data, but coming after a 239k total trend is moving higher. The 4-week average of 235k is the highest since October and if we ixclude October’s hurricane-induced bounce the level is the highest since August 2024.
Continued claims, covering the week before initial claims, at 1.904m saw a marginal 3k decline after three straight gains, but the 4-week average of 1.895k is the highest since December 2021.
