U.S. July JOLTS Job Openings, August ISM Manufacturing - Softer than expected, but not weak
The latest US data is on the weak side of expectations though should not be seen as weak. August’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.6 is down from 55.6 in July though still stronger than every month in the first half of the year. July job openings increased by 89k, but the rise is more than fully offset by a downward revision to June, now down by 355k versus a 178k fall reported last month.
The JOLTS report on job openings turns the 3-month average negative at -105k for the first time since December 2025 while the 6-month average of 5k is now close to neutral after being clearly positive through Q2.
The small rise in hirings in August may be a modest positive signal for August’s payroll but elsewhere the JOLTS report details are quite weak. Hirings fell by 278k, and while separations fell by a similar 265k, 157k of that was due to a fall in quits, which is not a positive sign. The difference between the hires and separations levels is close to, in fact marginally below, zero for a third straight month.
July’s ISM manufacturing index was the strongest since May 2022 so the modest slowing in August is not a cause for concern. Trend remains positive as it has been through 2026 to date after being below neutral for the bulk of 2025.
New orders slipped to 53.7 from 56.7 to the slowest since March. Employment also slipped, to 51.2 from 51.8, but the index remains positive, something which before July’s data had not been seen since January 2025.
Production at 58.3 from 58.5 remains strong while delivery times suggest some supply pressures with a rise to 59.3 from 58.9. Despite the rise in the latter however, prices paid were unchanged at 71.1. The prices paid index does not contribute to the composite.