Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
We expect a June new home sales total of 615k, which would be an increase of 6.0% if May’s 7.3% decline to 580k sees no revisions. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Housing sector indicators have generally had little clear trend, though there has been some softening recently, with the NAHB homebuilders’ index slipping in both June and July, with inflation concerns putting upward pressure on mortgage rates.
We expect sales to increase in the West and South after May dips but slippage in the Northeast and Midwest which increased in May. The West has the most upside scope but the South is the largest region. We expect slippage in prices after gains in May, the median by 2.0% on the month and the average by 3.0%. This would leave the median up 1.8% yr/yr after a flat May and the average up 3.1% yr/yr versus 5.0% in May.
