Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms
We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced.
We expect a 1.0% decline in exports which would be a third straight decline though with export prices having fallen by 1.3% in July this means a marginal increase in real terms. We expect imports to increase by 0.5% after a 2.6% decline in June. With import prices having fallen by 0.4% this means a larger rise from imports in real terms than for exports, causing the deficit to increase in real terms too, though again remaining narrower than seen in May.
June’s exports decline was led by crude oil which may remain weak with the US reluctant to export with supplies at home getting depleted. June also saw a large rise in exports of nonmonetary gold, a volatile series in recent months, that may be corrected. Elsewhere we expect exports to see respectable gains in real terms. July’s imports decline was led by computers, pharmaceutical preparations and crude oil. We expect the former two to see rebounds in July.
