Thailand Country Risk Rating

Thailand’s overall country risk rating has been maintained at medium-high. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has 293 seats of parliament’s 499 total members, which provides some stability. Parliament also passed an amnesty law covering 2005-25, which helps cool the political temperature, while ex PM Thaksin Shinawatra has also been released from prison and has gone to Dubai. Nevertheless, opposition parties have made fraud allegations against the government over Senate seats. Political violence maintains its high-risk rating. Meanwhile, tensions remain between Thailand and Cambodia over border disputes, despite U.S. efforts to bring calm. Political interference has been assessed at a medium rating, alongside a legal & regulatory risk rating remaining medium-high.

Thailand’s GDP growth rate is forecast at 1.5% for 2026 by the IMF. This is supported by exports and rising investment – one example being the local unit of TikTok’s injection of a huge USD 25 bln for the expansion of digital infrastructure. Additionally, Thailand is looking to deepen trade with BRICS countries by getting full BRICS membership in 2026. Even so, high energy prices from the Iran war have had an adverse impact on growth, with a 0.2% fall in Q2 from Q1. The IMF forecast inflation at 0.9% for 2026 could be exceeded with still high energy prices. Meanwhile, the IMF project government debt to GDP to continue its upward trend, reaching a projected 66.8% in 2026 and 67.8% in 2027. Sovereign non-payment risk remains medium, though exchange transfer has fallen to medium-low.