Argentina Country Risk Rating
Argentina’s overall risk remains medium high.
President Javier Milei’s administration’s approval ratings have fallen below 40%, as economic growth is concentrated in export sectors and households are being squeezed by negative real wages. Additionally, the government has been involved in a number of scandals, with which voters are not happy about given Milei’s promises on ending corruption. We think the October/November 2027 presidential election could be close, though opposition parties need to unify around a credible candidate and also shake off voter concerns about major corruption in previous administrations. It is also worth remembering that polls underestimated Milei’s support ahead of last October’s elections. Meanwhile, Milei’s relationship with the Trump administration remains very good, with Milei having supported Trump’s pivot toward the Americas in the U.S. security strategy, leading to a new bilateral trade deal agreed with the U.S. earlier in the year.
Economically, Argentina’s GDP growth is projected to maintain momentum from the 2023-24 recession with a positive growth of 3.5% in 2026, forecasted by the IMF. Growth also sits in a positive position due to the continued reassurance of Argentina’s move towards macroeconomic stability and reform, a well-performing agricultural sector and investment into the energy sector. Additionally, Argentina continues to benefit from the 4-year USD20bn IMF Extended Fund Facility in April 2025. This leaves the inability of the government to provide stimulus at a medium risk rating. However, Argentina lies as the IMF’s largest debtor and still has an overall government debt projected to be 70.4% of GDP in 2026, though with further decreases likely 2027-28. Sovereign non-payment risk stays at medium. Inflation has also been on a downward trend since 2024 but progress has slowed with an increase in energy and utility prices and the IMF now forecasts it to be 30.4% in 2026, according to April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. Finally, the risk of doing business continues at a high level.