Canada July GDP - Pause after strong June, heading for a respectable Q3
July Canadian GDP is unchanged, in line with the preliminary indication given with June data. This marks a pause after a strong 0.4% increase in June, which was revised up from 0.3%. The preliminary estimate for August is for a moderate increase of 0.2%, leaving underlying momentum intact, but fresh US tariffs might start to restrain growth in September and into Q4.
If September GDP is unchanged and August comes in at 0.2% as projected, Q3 GDP would rise at an annualized pace of around 2.0%. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem has warned that fresh tariffs could half the pace of Q4 growth to around 1.0%.
July detail shows both goods and services unchanged. In goods increases in utilities and construction offset declines in manufacturing, mining and agriculture. Services were restrained by dips in wholesale and retail after strong increases in June. Public administration at -0.3% also corrected a strong June increase of 0.7%. Accommodation and food services remained firm with a rise of 0.8%.
Yr/yr GDP slipped to 1.4% from June’s 15-mopnth high of 2.1% as a strong July 2025 dropped out. A 0.2% rise in August would put yr/yr GDP at 1.7%.
