USD/CAD flows: Weak Canada core CPI keeps trend up in 2026 range

Latest Canadian CPI data is notably soft, tending to reinforce the view that the BoC is in no hurry and has ample time to wait and see how Iran, oil and the implications play out.

The headline rose to 2.8% on base effects from the carbon tax abolition last year, but all the core measures are weaker: BoC core at 2.1% from 2.5%, trim and median also at or around 2% (the non-policy ex food energy rates was down to 1.5%). If core data remains as soft as in recent months, the BoC could remain on hold even with further strength in energy. CAD a touch offered, off some 20-30 ticks. USD/CAD continues its recent steady daily trend up action within the 2026 range of 1.35~ to 1.4~