Canada November GDP disappoints but modest rise seen in December
November Canadian GDP was unchanged, below a 0.1% estimate made when October’s 0.3% decline was released. The preliminary estimate for December is for a 0.1% increase. Rebounds from November weakness in manufacturing and wholesale are seen lifting December data.
This implies a 0.5% annualized decline in Q4 GDP, a little weaker than a flat forecast made by the BoC with this week’s Monetary Policy Report.
For November goods output fell by 0.3% with a 1.3% decline in manufacturing, a second straight, outweighing modest gains in construction, utilities and mining. Services rose by 0.1% after a 0.1% October decline. Education and transport/warehousing rebounded from October weakness assisted by the end of labor disputes, but a 2.1% decline in wholesale outweighed a 1.3% rise in retail.
Yr/yr growth of 0.6% is up from 0.5% in October but both of these numbers are weaker than any since the string of negatives seen during the pandemic, lasting from March 2020 through February 2021.
