Zambia Country Risk Rating

Zambia, landlocked in Southern Africa, has seen its overall country risk rating upgraded to medium. President Hakainde Hichilema has held his power since 2021 and is expected to gain his second-presidential term in the upcoming August 2026 election. The supposed opposition party is unlikely to win over the public following its mismanagement of finances in 2011-2021, as Zambia is still emerging from its protracted debt crisis. In late 2025, President Hichilema had pushed for the constitutional changes that would expand Zambia’s parliament, a transition which critics have highlighted could further solidify his party’s place in the upcoming presidential election. Therefore, both political interference and legal & regulatory risk remain medium-high. In terms of African relations, Zambia continues to maintain close ties with the likes of the DRC (security and mining), Tanzania (energy) and Zimbabwe, despite Zambia’s significant policy shift in strengthening its position within the West while keeping close economic ties with China. Political violence has maintained its medium risk rating, supported by Zambia pursuing its neutral but positive foreign policy.

In the IMF’s April 2026 outlook, GDP growth is forecast at 4.3% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 driven by Zambia’s mining sector revival, stability throughout the energy sector and a recovery in agriculture. Africa’s second largest copper producer is seeking global investment with the aim of tripling its copper output to 3 mln metric tons by 2031. The U.S. are looking like a probable source of finance due to President Trump’s goal of loosening China’s grip on such key materials. In addition to this, Zambia’s USD 1.7 bln Extended Credit Facility program concluded in January 2026, and now the country’s sights are locked onto a new support program, with discussions potentially stretching beyond the August 2026 presidential election. In terms of inflation, Zambia’s central bank had cut rates in its February 2026 meeting by 75bps meaning the country’s policy rate sits at 13.50%, followed by an IMF projection that expects annual inflation to slow to 9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027. The risk of doing business remains medium-high, while exchange transfer is considered to have a medium risk rating. To end, public external debt continues to be restructured, since the nation defaulted in 2020, explaining the slight fall in government debt to GDP, but much more work is needed to be done to reach sustainable levels. Sovereign non-payment risk is assessed as medium-high.