Preview: Due July 31 - Canada May GDP - A modest rise, sustaining momentum in Q2
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in May, modestly extending quite a strong 0.3% increase seen in April and suggesting Q2 GDP will see a respectable rise, probably similar to the 1.7% annualized gain seen in Q1 even if June is subdued.
With April’s report a preliminary estimate for a 0.1% May increase was given, seeing increases in manufacturing, real estate/rental/leasing and finance/insurance, but weakness in retail and wholesale. Manufacturing data was modestly positive in May but wholesale and retail were weak.
We expect gains of 0.1% in both goods and services, with the former subdued outside manufacturing and the latter weighed down by weakness in retail and wholesale. We expect yr/yr growth to slip to 1.0% from 1.1% in April.
