North American Summary and Highlights 18 August
Overview - The USD saw little change overall, but the commodity currencies saw some slippage.
North American session
The USD saw some modest early losses, but these were later erased. The USD recovery coincided with UST yields moving off their highs. Oil saw little movement and equities remained subdued. The most notable moves were in the commodity currencies, USD/CAD touching above 1.39 from 1.3875 and AUD/USD falling below .7090 from a peak near .7120. NZD/USD returned to lows near .5875. EUR/USD and USD/JPY saw little change.
US data was mixed, and had little impact. July housing starts fell by 12.4% but permits rose by 5.0%. July industrial production and manufacturing output both rose by 0.2%, but July pending home sales fell by 2.3%.
European session
Not a lot of traction, as the modest dollar bounce overnight flattens out in the European morning. One slight exception is NZD, where the initial false break and pullback from 0.59/10 dragged, although that intraday correction also pares. Risk markets nonetheless checked by the realities of the entrenching US-Iran standoff, with S&P future –½ % and Nasdaq almost -1%. Brent front month holds around $91, more interest in the wider complex.
UK labor market data has private sector ex-bonus pay easing to 2.8%, lowest since Oct20, while unemployment held 4.9% (mkt 4.8%). Vacancies at five-year lows. HMRC payrolls data also showed a 13k drop in July. ZEW survey still improves from lows, Aug EZ expectations to 31.4 from 23.4, German current conditions -61.1 from -77.6.