North American Summary and Highlights 11 November

North American session

While Veterans’ Day meant no fresh data or Fed speakers, the USD rallied early in the session on continued response to the post-CPI re-assessment of Fed risks. Equities were firm led by CoreWeave helping to reduce fears of an AI slowdown while oil advanced as Middle East peace hopes faded.

USD/JPY got close to 160 but failed to break through. EUR/USD slipped below 1.11. The EUR lost ground versus the GDP but advanced versus the CHF. AUD/USD stabilized near .6850 while USD/CAD got close to 1.4250.

European session

Further digestion of the post-data dollar step-adjustment following the US CPI and the mainly hawkish Fed comments (some mix in terms of approach to pace - faster or still gradual - but all rather concerned by the inflation trends and need for policy to react to it). It’s the ‘low yielders’ that are tending to feel the pressure extend, with USD/CHF and USD/SEK both up either side of ½ %. NOK also still heavy on the corrective pressure now gaining traction through from the sharp oil pullback of the last week or so.

USD/JPY is finding some better capping around 159 resistance with offers sat around there and of course the general, if recently dormant, intervention considerations in the background. EUR/USD sitting in current support in the 1.1130/50 area. Little news of note yet. Bundesbank’s Nagel suggests German growth likely to accelerate in Q4 with recovery stronger than forecast.